Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the current situation. They writes two articles that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass identity markers, levies, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to inform and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
